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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 31 game
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 21 game
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 26 games
73%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
89%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
416 picks · 343 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 179 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 781 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
326 picks · 320 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 818 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
270 picks · 616 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
269 picks · 540 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 351 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head9 – 6
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:28
Team Falcons 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:16:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
46% · 210 games54% · 223 games
Nature's ProphetYatoro
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
45% · 133 games51% · 252 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierATF
44% · 257 games53% · 81 game
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Chen
ChenSneyking
59% · 88 games50% · 153 games
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
54% · 117 games47% · 96 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed39:10
Team Falcons 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
50% · 62 games47% · 195 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingATF
53% · 248 games50% · 126 games
Shadow FiendLarl
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
50% · 181 game53% · 175 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
52% · 225 games48% · 154 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCr1t-
52% · 33 games47% · 99 games
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2