DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 38 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
Team Spirit
Tusk
rue · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 18 games
Jakiro
Panto · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 17 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 17 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
780 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
613 picks · 305 bans
Jakiro
590 picks · 509 bans
Dragon Knight
575 picks · 721 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 552 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 328 bans
Mars
510 picks · 761 bans
Centaur Warrunner
505 picks · 577 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:34
Team Falcons 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonSkiter
ViperLarl
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
KezYatoro
MarsATF
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Skywrath MageCr1t-
JakiroPanto
PugnaSneyking
Tuskrue
Game 2prediction missed4:31
Team Falcons 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 20:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
WeaverYatoro
TidehunterATF
Dark SeerCollapse
Monkey KingMalr1ne
SlardarLarl
ChenSneyking
Bounty Hunterrue
BatriderCr1t-
HoodwinkPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2