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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 29 games
62%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 27 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
68%

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 30 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
670 picks · 830 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 598 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
477 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
475 picks · 417 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1091 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 695 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1003 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:15
Team Falcons 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
54% · 381 game48% · 437 games
BeastmasterYatoro
Beastmaster
Razor
RazorATF
48% · 157 games50% · 367 games
PangolierCollapse
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
52% · 269 games43% · 383 games
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
51% · 673 games50% · 663 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
49% · 836 games55% · 466 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed39:13
Team Falcons 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
45% · 169 games48% · 346 games
BeastmasterLarl
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
42% · 440 games47% · 329 games
WindrangerYatoro
Windranger
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
52% · 223 games54% · 255 games
BatriderCollapse
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
47% · 747 games61% · 319 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
53% · 38 games54% · 368 games
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2