PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 33 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
Tusk
rue · 29 games
Ringmaster
rue · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 528 bans
Tiny
534 picks · 413 bans
Hoodwink
484 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 543 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 415 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1008 bans
Warlock
390 picks · 240 bans
Puck
387 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head9 – 4
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:14
Team Falcons 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomATF
Monkey KingYatoro
TinySkiter
UnderlordBatyuk
PangolierMalr1ne
PuckLarl
HoodwinkCr1t-
Rubickrue
EnchantressSneyking
BanePanto
Game 2prediction correct48:29
Team Falcons 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:06:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomATF
Monkey KingYatoro
TinySkiter
Primal BeastBatyuk
PangolierMalr1ne
Queen of PainLarl
MiranaSneyking
PhoenixPanto
HoodwinkCr1t-
Grimstrokerue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2