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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 25 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
535 picks · 329 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
501 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 367 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
402 picks · 219 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
394 picks · 288 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 877 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 310 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 854 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 4
Model total61% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:36
Team Falcons 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
47% · 151 game58% · 101 game
LargoCollapse
Largo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
41% · 123 games56% · 113 games
AlchemistYatoro
Alchemist
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
49% · 535 games52% · 398 games
Void SpiritLarl
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
47% · 192 games53% · 69 games
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
46% · 96 games51% · 416 games
Tusknot me
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct46:35
Team Falcons 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:04:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
52% · 196 games44% · 210 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerSkiter
56% · 177 games47% · 330 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 410 games46% · 176 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
63% · 70 games44% · 95 games
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Lion
LionCr1t-
58% · 105 games46% · 147 games
Clockwerknot me
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct39:18
Team Falcons 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
49% · 148 games57% · 54 games
TinkerLarl
Tinker
Tiny
TinySkiter
45% · 334 games53% · 162 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
43% · 345 games54% · 218 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Ringmaster
RingmasterSneyking
50% · 241 game46% · 230 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
Lion
LionCr1t-
53% · 84 games52% · 488 games
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 61%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3