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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 53 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
54%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
91%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 728 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 777 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 366 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 519 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1033 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 927 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 74%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:24
Team Falcons 61%Team Tidebound 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
51% · 120 games50% · 90 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidATF
57% · 67 games54% · 183 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Slardar
SlardarMalr1ne
50% · 41 game45% · 77 games
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
47% · 246 games50% · 215 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
49% · 96 games33% · 5 games
Ringmastery`
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed8:24
Team Falcons 61%Team Tidebound 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
50% · 115 games46% · 123 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
49% · 139 games51% · 20 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerATF
53% · 103 games46% · 69 games
AbaddonFaith_bian
Abaddon
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
54% · 172 games46% · 237 games
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
55% · 23 games52% · 103 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2