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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 30 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 39 games
64%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 29 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
401 picks · 363 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
379 picks · 414 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 538 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
306 picks · 530 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
302 picks · 665 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 618 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 309 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:35
Team Falcons 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
50% · 86 games55% · 12 games
Lone DruidPure~
Lone Druid
Underlord
UnderlordATF
53% · 48 games54% · 54 games
ViperTopson
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
48% · 229 games53% · 180 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 257 games47% · 231 game
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Bristleback
BristlebackSneyking
58% · 29 games47% · 172 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed21:28
Team Falcons 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
43% · 54 games48% · 137 games
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
48% · 172 games47% · 100 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
54% · 306 games49% · 229 games
DoomRAMZES666
Doom
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
57% · 210 games51% · 299 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 235 games49% · 212 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2