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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
83%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 23 games
65%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
61%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 18 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Topson · 18 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 319 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 469 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 462 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 590 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 174 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
275 picks · 333 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 440 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
248 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 3
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:46
Team Falcons 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
49% · 53 games62% · 175 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
46% · 119 games49% · 131 game
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 285 games41% · 229 games
Doom33
Doom
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
56% · 201 game58% · 54 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSneyking
48% · 20 games45% · 89 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct39:4
Team Falcons 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 21:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
44% · 107 games43% · 188 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
58% · 46 games51% · 194 games
WindrangerLorenof
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
58% · 109 games43% · 48 games
Visage33
Visage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
54% · 208 games57% · 73 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Chen
ChenSneyking
50% · 66 games41% · 33 games
Bounty HunterSaksa
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2