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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 41 game
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 39 games
90%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 36 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
60%

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 32 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
527 picks · 773 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 591 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
496 picks · 537 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
482 picks · 600 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
466 picks · 392 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
442 picks · 986 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 793 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
390 picks · 896 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 77%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:39
Team Falcons 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSkiter
55% · 240 games48% · 101 game
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
48% · 362 games48% · 260 games
Morphlingbzm
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonATF
36% · 46 games48% · 140 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
58% · 153 games56% · 178 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
45% · 244 games53% · 366 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Team Falcons 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
56% · 130 games51% · 101 game
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
48% · 45 games57% · 245 games
Monkey Kingbzm
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
53% · 272 games41% · 32 games
Abaddon33
Abaddon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
52% · 116 games42% · 310 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 181 game48% · 56 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2