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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 52 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 41 game
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 29 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 27 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 37 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 30 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 28 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 26 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 730 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
475 picks · 468 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
471 picks · 759 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 361 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 1043 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 502 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 936 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 76%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 7
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:0
Team Falcons 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 4:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
44% · 196 games50% · 251 game
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
49% · 117 games52% · 34 games
Dazzlebzm
Dazzle
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
50% · 128 games53% · 194 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Tinker
TinkerSneyking
50% · 15 games54% · 113 games
Nature's ProphetSaksa
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
47% · 154 games53% · 18 games
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed46:20
Team Falcons 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:09:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
54% · 34 games48% · 124 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Huskar
HuskarATF
48% · 21 game51% · 137 games
Windrangerbzm
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
50% · 256 games53% · 109 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
51% · 108 games58% · 121 game
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
47% · 124 games39% · 52 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed22:9
Team Falcons 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
46% · 57 games59% · 67 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
52% · 192 games45% · 255 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkiter
48% · 78 games49% · 208 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSneyking
53% · 107 gameslittle data
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
42% · 178 games56% · 82 games
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3