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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 28 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 19 games
53%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 32 games
72%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 30 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Invoker
Invoker
bzm · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
448 picks · 415 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
361 picks · 194 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 347 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 803 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 847 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
284 picks · 394 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 222 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
280 picks · 536 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 9
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
Team Falcons 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusATF
55% · 273 games53% · 178 games
DoomCrystallis
Doom
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
44% · 181 game55% · 210 games
Monkey Kingbzm
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
50% · 194 games45% · 85 games
Axe33
Axe
Chen
ChenSneyking
54% · 143 games47% · 277 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
43% · 141 game52% · 182 games
PugnaTobi
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed14:28
Team Falcons 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
46% · 79 games56% · 326 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomATF
52% · 250 games48% · 43 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 477 games51% · 175 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
52% · 154 games51% · 451 game
TinySaksa
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
46% · 199 games50% · 164 games
PugnaTobi
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct40:14
Team Falcons 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
44% · 97 games44% · 100 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
56% · 191 game59% · 140 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 388 games52% · 304 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 164 games50% · 379 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 206 games47% · 123 games
SnapfireTobi
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3