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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 28 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 26 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
82%

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 26 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 355 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 590 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
567 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 545 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
471 picks · 291 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 273 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 742 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1119 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 9
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
Team Falcons 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
53% · 325 games54% · 317 games
BeastmasterPure~
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarATF
50% · 188 games43% · 233 games
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
53% · 59 games45% · 128 games
Axe33
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 200 games51% · 292 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
48% · 349 games55% · 151 game
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1