?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 36 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 26 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 22 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Fly · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 737 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 357 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 655 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 552 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
382 picks · 127 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 626 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
377 picks · 180 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 542 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 39%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
Team Falcons 76%Virtus.pro 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
51% · 272 games49% · 235 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
51% · 190 games49% · 418 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
47% · 257 games57% · 121 game
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
56% · 106 games47% · 63 games
MiranaHellscream
Mirana
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
47% · 474 games47% · 462 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed8:41
Team Falcons 77%Virtus.pro 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
42% · 217 games47% · 154 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
53% · 144 games49% · 258 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
58% · 43 games50% · 323 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Lion
LionCr1t-
48% · 66 games61% · 87 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskSneyking
41% · 371 game69% · 19 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct23:11
Team Falcons 78%Virtus.pro 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
48% · 106 games55% · 128 games
Nature's ProphetAbed
Nature's Prophet
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
51% · 38 games58% · 63 games
Phantom AssassinTimado
Phantom Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordATF
46% · 113 games51% · 91 game
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
49% · 357 games49% · 282 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
50% · 4 games48% · 54 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3