ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Sneyking · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Cr1t- · 2 games
Wraith King
Skiter · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Sneyking · 1 game
Winter Bear
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Bane
Nagato · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
240 picks · 110 bans
Grimstroke
240 picks · 286 bans
Vengeful Spirit
231 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 270 bans
Treant Protector
205 picks · 440 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 420 bans
Earth Spirit
182 picks · 283 bans
Earthshaker
177 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:15
Team Falcons 70%Winter Bear 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMalr1ne
MuertaLowskill
SpectreSkiter
TuskNagato
KunkkaATF
Nature's ProphetSneyking
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
Game 2prediction correct45:23
Team Falcons 68%Winter Bear 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSkiter
Faceless VoidLowskill
BristlebackATF
Ancient ApparitionNagato
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
PuckMalr1ne
Skywrath MageSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2