BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:1series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 24 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
Snapfiresignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
Pyw · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
499 picks · 685 bans
Clockwerk
427 picks · 485 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 542 bans
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
348 picks · 179 bans
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 463 bans
Enchantress
320 picks · 642 bans
Batrider
314 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total91% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:40
Team Falcons 77%Xtreme Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:03:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightATF
Ursalou
RazorSkiter
VenomancerXm
PangolierMalr1ne
Doomniu
LinaCr1t-
TuskPyw
ClockwerkSneyking
PugnaPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 91%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1