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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 40 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 38 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
60%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 32 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 778 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 601 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 513 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
471 picks · 580 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 379 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 990 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 778 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
389 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
Team Falcons 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMalr1ne
53% · 252 games50% · 59 games
Abaddonlou
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSkiter
49% · 164 games53% · 249 games
Doomniu
Doom
Slark
SlarkATF
37% · 55 games52% · 372 games
PhoenixXm
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
50% · 436 games53% · 383 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
48% · 247 games51% · 91 game
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed30:33
Team Falcons 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
52% · 127 games50% · 192 games
Bristlebacklou
Bristleback
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
41% · 62 games45% · 108 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingATF
49% · 215 games55% · 148 games
Terrorbladeniu
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
49% · 379 games54% · 343 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Zeus
ZeusSneyking
48% · 105 games54% · 97 games
GrimstrokeUndyne_
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2