The International 2025 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 3:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Xtreme Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 32 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 20 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 20 games
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
Xtreme Gaming
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 28 games
Tiny
Ame · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 20 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Poloson · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
332 picks · 222 bans
Puck
307 picks · 680 bans
Dark Willow
274 picks · 133 bans
Tusk
273 picks · 262 bans
Batrider
264 picks · 710 bans
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 601 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 511 bans
Marci
241 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
Team Falcons 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierATF
UrsaAme
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Queen of PainXm
SvenSkiter
MarsXxs
EnchantressSneyking
HoodwinkXinQ
SnapfireCr1t-
Elder TitanxNova
Game 2prediction correct19:2
Team Falcons 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackATF
ClinkzAme
AbaddonSkiter
PuckXm
Primal BeastMalr1ne
BeastmasterXxs
EnchantressSneyking
HoodwinkXinQ
RingmasterCr1t-
Elder TitanxNova
Game 3prediction missed8:20
Team Falcons 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierATF
SvenAme
GyrocopterSkiter
Shadow FiendXm
BeastmasterMalr1ne
SlardarXxs
PugnaSneyking
Shadow DemonXinQ
RingmasterCr1t-
BanexNova
Game 4prediction correct15:4
Team Falcons 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSkiter
SvenAme
UrsaATF
LeshracXm
Sand KingMalr1ne
MagnusXxs
HoodwinkCr1t-
Shadow DemonXinQ
TuskSneyking
Elder TitanxNova
Game 5prediction correct24:11
Team Falcons 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 58:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkiter
JuggernautAme
MagnusATF
Shadow FiendXm
PangolierMalr1ne
EarthshakerXxs
Naga SirenSneyking
Shadow DemonXinQ
DisruptorCr1t-
PugnaxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Series resultTeam Falcons 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5