BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Tinysignature
Skiter · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 24 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Xtreme Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 31 game
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 29 games
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
Primal Beast
Xxs · 27 games
Tiny
NothingToSay · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
550 picks · 341 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 564 bans
Rubick
444 picks · 234 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 506 bans
Puck
323 picks · 847 bans
Jakiro
313 picks · 213 bans
Beastmaster
312 picks · 800 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:17
Team Falcons 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierATF
Sand KingNothingToSay
AlchemistSkiter
KezAme
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Night StalkerXxs
EnchantressSneyking
Hoodwinkfy
LionCr1t-
ClockwerkxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1