Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Flowwin 1:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
UD Vessuwanloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Flow
Rubick
czy · 6 games
Tiny
Mercury · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mercury · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Unknown- · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
Lion
czy · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Unknown- · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mercury · 4 games
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 9 games
Snapfire
LionaX · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
boombell · 7 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 7 games
Mirana
boombell · 6 games
Tiny
Beebie · 6 games
Tusk
boombell · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
668 picks · 429 bans
Tusk
580 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
557 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
480 picks · 538 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 385 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 206 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 527 bans
Nature's Prophet
341 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Team Flow
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Flow
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Team Flow 52%UD Vessuwan 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Flow — the game was taken by Team Flow in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaUnknown-
LinaKNP
Storm SpiritMercury
PangolierBeebie
MagnusNevermine
Tidehuntertnt
Miranaczy
Snapfireboombell
LichTrazaM
Treant ProtectorLionaX
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Flow · 51%
Series resultTeam Flow 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1