Team France vs IVY — prediction PCMV# · Dota 2

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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Franceloss 0:2

series probability

18%82%

probability at match start · final 0:2

IVYwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team France

No games played over 6 months.

IVY

Leshracoften banned

pio65 · 18 games

39%

Mirana

Qupe · 18 games

50%

Tiny

Qupe · 17 games

41%

Tusk

Mo13ei · 17 games

53%

Clockwerksignature

Qupe · 15 games

67%

Snapfire

Qupe · 15 games

27%

Treant Protector

jmn- · 13 games

31%

Luna

pio65 · 12 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

691 picks · 596 bans

47%

Disruptor

552 picks · 487 bans

54%

Doom

441 picks · 773 bans

55%

Beastmaster

440 picks · 1086 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

401 picks · 1014 bans

50%

Mirana

379 picks · 204 bans

58%

Pangolier

375 picks · 817 bans

54%

Enchantress

372 picks · 544 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%

Hero pool strength51% Team France

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total82% IVY

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct19:44

Team France 31%IVY 69%

The model gave 69% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 42:04.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo