PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTFTeam Frostloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Frost
No games played over 6 months.
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 319 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Frost
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Frost 28%Spiky Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Frost 28%Spiky Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 72%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2