Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Fusionwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 495 bans
Bane
437 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
425 picks · 562 bans
Dragon Knight
367 picks · 426 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 610 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:36
Team Fusion 61%CDEC Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 33:49.
Game 2prediction missed13:28
Team Fusion 61%CDEC Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 33:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 61%
Series resultTeam Fusion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2