Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team FYloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DDwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team FY
No games played over 6 months.
Team DD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
450 picks · 435 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 588 bans
Phantom Assassin
314 picks · 625 bans
Ringmaster
309 picks · 141 bans
Muerta
292 picks · 163 bans
Bristleback
285 picks · 536 bans
Terrorblade
285 picks · 510 bans
Beastmaster
283 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team FY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team DD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
Team FY 45%Team DD 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DD — the game was taken by Team FY in 28:07.
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Team FY 45%Team DD 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DD — the game was taken by Team DD in 37:06.
Game 3prediction correct19:34
Team FY 45%Team DD 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DD — the game was taken by Team DD in 39:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DD · 55%
Series resultTeam DD 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3