Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team FYloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Zhouwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team FY
No games played over 6 months.
Team Zhou
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
465 picks · 457 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 567 bans
Ringmaster
325 picks · 148 bans
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 581 bans
Terrorblade
279 picks · 514 bans
Bristleback
269 picks · 487 bans
Muerta
267 picks · 149 bans
Beastmaster
263 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team FY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Zhou
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:32
Team FY 29%Team Zhou 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team FY in 39:38.
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Team FY 29%Team Zhou 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 36:55.
Game 3prediction correct25:24
Team FY 29%Team Zhou 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 38:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zhou · 71%
Series resultTeam Zhou 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3