?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Greeceloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Greece

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Focus · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
ThuG · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Madara · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Focus · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Focus · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
20%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
0%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
456 picks · 523 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 568 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
354 picks · 394 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
336 picks · 258 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
330 picks · 907 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 667 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Greece 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Greece 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 55%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2