European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TT Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
Lunaoften banned
paw · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 1 game
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
460 picks · 373 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 542 bans
Batrider
377 picks · 483 bans
Lion
375 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 402 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 586 bans
Beastmaster
339 picks · 857 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% TT Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Hryvnia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:40
Team Hryvnia 53%TT Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by TT Team in 30:11.
Game 2prediction missed27:26
Team Hryvnia 53%TT Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by TT Team in 34:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Hryvnia · 53%
Series resultTT Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2