Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTITeam Insaneloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South America Rejectswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Insane
No games played over 6 months.
South America Rejects
Clockwerk
DFlash · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Mandy · 1 game
Hoodwink
Duster · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Razoroften banned
FCR · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Skywrath Mageoften banned
DFlash · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
357 picks · 338 bans
Tusk
314 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 462 bans
Pangolier
246 picks · 553 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Team Insane
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Insane
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Insane 58%South America Rejects 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Insane — the game was taken by Team Insane.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Insane 58%South America Rejects 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Insane — the game was taken by South America Rejects.
Game 3prediction missed18:38
Team Insane 58%South America Rejects 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Insane — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 31:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Insane · 58%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3