EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionTJTeam Jenzwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Jenz
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Lina
No!ob · 1 game
Luna
Parker · 1 game
Rubick
Jing · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Parker · 1 game
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
Phoenix
kreker · 27 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 25 games
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 19 games
Ringmaster
QBFY · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
523 picks · 370 bans
Rubick
424 picks · 254 bans
Tiny
362 picks · 365 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 635 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 425 bans
Windranger
324 picks · 232 bans
Storm Spirit
291 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
288 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Jenz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Team Jenz 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaParker
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
LinaNo!ob
Earth SpiritStormstormer
RingmasterJing
Snapfirekreker
OmniknightYadomi
Dark WillowQBFY
Game 2prediction correct29:25
Team Jenz 52%Team Lynx 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaParker
InvokerStormstormer
LinaNo!ob
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
SnapfireJing
TechiesQBFY
ClockwerkYadomi
Tuskkreker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Jenz · 54%
Series resultTeam Jenz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2