DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTKTeam KaranDoteswin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MMoneyfestloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team KaranDotes
No games played over 6 months.
Moneyfest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
290 picks · 685 bans
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 184 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 643 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dark Willow
251 picks · 107 bans
Disruptor
250 picks · 214 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 537 bans
Marci
243 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team KaranDotes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Moneyfest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team KaranDotes 39%Moneyfest 61%
The model gave 61% on Moneyfest — the game was taken by Team KaranDotes.
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyfest · 61%
Series resultTeam KaranDotes 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1