Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kickedwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstenszloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kicked
Terrorbladeoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Eyyou · 1 game
Disruptor
Eyyou · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jing · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
Mirana
Jing · 1 game
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
735 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1034 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 980 bans
Doom
400 picks · 670 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Carstensz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:19
Team Kicked 46%Carstensz 54%
The model gave 54% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 30:07.
Game 2prediction missed43:22
Team Kicked 46%Carstensz 54%
The model gave 54% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 32:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 54%
Series resultTeam Kicked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2