Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kickedwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MANTA Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kicked
No games played over 6 months.
MANTA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
415 picks · 976 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 688 bans
Undying
400 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 915 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Kicked
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% MANTA Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:7
Team Kicked 44%MANTA Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on MANTA Esports — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 29:26.
Game 2prediction missed39:26
Team Kicked 44%MANTA Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on MANTA Esports — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 35:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteMANTA Esports · 56%
Series resultTeam Kicked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2