DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Kleewin 1:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IILOVESABRINAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
ILOVESABRINA
Shadow Demon
ArrOw · 1 game
Tiny
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 445 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 387 bans
Centaur Warrunner
237 picks · 319 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
Treant Protector
194 picks · 368 bans
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Team Klee
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Team Klee 86%ILOVESABRINA 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 43:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 86%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1