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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kleewin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Klee

No games played over 6 months.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 6 games
17%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
velheor · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 336 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 115 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 475 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
213 picks · 297 bans
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 219 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 376 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
193 picks · 285 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 438 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Klee
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed57:42
Team Klee 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Klee — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 1:18:50.
Game 2prediction missed32:55
Team Klee 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Klee — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 1:11:42.
Game 3prediction missed35:15
Team Klee 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Klee — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 35:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 70%
Series resultTeam Klee 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3