European Pro League Season 16 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Kleewin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 9 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 7 games
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 6 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MiLAN · 5 games
Lion
MiLAN · 4 games
Luna
Lowskill · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 543 bans
Vengeful Spirit
309 picks · 233 bans
Phoenix
306 picks · 448 bans
Lion
303 picks · 271 bans
Magnus
273 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
270 picks · 764 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 458 bans
Faceless Void
264 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:24
Team Klee 57%Ninja Penguins 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 34:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 57%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1