DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Marssignature
JG · 6 games
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
Bane
Kuku · 4 games
Leshrac
Armel · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Armel · 4 games
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 672 bans
Tusk
506 picks · 336 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
424 picks · 150 bans
Hoodwink
405 picks · 195 bans
Mars
374 picks · 518 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Team Kukuys 88%Carstensz Esports 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 30:18.
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Team Kukuys 88%Carstensz Esports 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 38:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 88%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2