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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuysloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kukuys

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
JG · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Kuku · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Armel · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 4 games
100%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 18 games
44%
Axe
Axe
Tino- · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 353 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 659 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 546 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
410 picks · 138 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 186 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 521 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 523 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
Team Kukuys 46%Execration 54%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightArmel
61% · 156 games45% · 132 games
AbaddonPalos
Abaddon
Clinkz
ClinkzGabbi
63% · 49 games41% · 215 games
Dragon KnightBob
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterJG
47% · 285 games48% · 98 games
DawnbreakerTino-
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDJ
54% · 376 games43% · 284 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKuku
60% · 94 games42% · 231 game
TuskShanks
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:21
Team Kukuys 46%Execration 54%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 52:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGabbi
61% · 160 games36% · 29 games
LunaPalos
Luna
Puck
PuckArmel
45% · 185 games47% · 270 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsJG
51% · 163 games47% · 191 game
TimbersawTino-
Timbersaw
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDJ
60% · 78 games44% · 189 games
MuertaShanks
Muerta
Bane
BaneKuku
57% · 104 games52% · 11 games
Treant Protectorcml
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 66%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2