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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 37 games
51%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 35 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 30 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 28 games
36%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
55%

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 30 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 419 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 303 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 898 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 810 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 535 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
351 picks · 703 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 480 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 383 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
Team Liquid 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
52% · 223 games53% · 154 games
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmother33
53% · 81 game49% · 91 game
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
44% · 245 games53% · 127 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBoxi
47% · 127 games57% · 222 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
41% · 160 games49% · 242 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed27:30
Team Liquid 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
50% · 252 games45% · 139 games
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckNisha
55% · 200 games43% · 148 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Medusa
Medusa33
48% · 73 games45% · 331 game
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Marci
MarciBoxi
61% · 99 games53% · 163 games
Weaverswedenstrong
Weaver
Sven
SveniNSaNiA
50% · 242 games53% · 85 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2