DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
99%1%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 46 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
ALIS VENTORUS
Luna
paw · 2 games
Phoenix
Norma · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 2 games
Hoodwink
waveformn · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Tusk
waveformn · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
633 picks · 696 bans
Tiny
511 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
407 picks · 360 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1078 bans
Puck
384 picks · 808 bans
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total99% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Team Liquid 85%ALIS VENTORUS 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinymiCKe
Lunapaw
Nature's ProphetNisha
HuskarPanda
UnderlordAce
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
RubicktOfu
Hoodwinkwaveformn
LionEkki
Treant ProtectorDelight
Game 2prediction correct43:15
Team Liquid 99%ALIS VENTORUS 1%
The model gave 99% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 99%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2