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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 3 games
100%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
qojqva · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
iNSaNiA · 3 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 3 games
33%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
301 picks · 608 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
279 picks · 347 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
239 picks · 423 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
227 picks · 180 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 369 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
193 picks · 104 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 596 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Team Liquid 35%Alliance 65%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:14.
Game 2prediction missed8:34
Team Liquid 35%Alliance 65%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:48.
Game 3prediction correct25:20
Team Liquid 35%Alliance 65%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 65%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3