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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 11 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
63%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
418 picks · 963 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 585 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 623 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 270 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 607 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 346 bans
60%
Wraith King
Wraith King
247 picks · 414 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
Team Liquid 45%AS Monaco Gambit 55%
The model gave 55% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1