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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 28 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 14 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 734 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 794 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 476 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 376 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
438 picks · 530 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
431 picks · 1044 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
412 picks · 939 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 530 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:33
Team Liquid 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 52:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
53% · 147 games52% · 154 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
49% · 187 games48% · 297 games
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyNisha
46% · 311 games60% · 40 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
46% · 177 games53% · 271 game
WeaverMira
Weaver
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
47% · 139 games48% · 199 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct24:16
Team Liquid 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
47% · 442 games51% · 131 game
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 212 games49% · 413 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
47% · 277 games47% · 552 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
46% · 211 games57% · 127 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
50% · 156 games53% · 75 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct26:14
Team Liquid 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
53% · 178 games46% · 88 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckNisha
46% · 221 game56% · 109 games
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
Enigma
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
55% · 191 game47% · 301 game
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidBoxi
50% · 61 game51% · 42 games
Bounty HunterMira
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
60% · 12 games45% · 123 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3