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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 29 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 16 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 14 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 730 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
478 picks · 471 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 769 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 363 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 509 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
419 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 934 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 542 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:24
Team Liquid 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
50% · 235 games43% · 103 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Slark
SlarkmiCKe
57% · 45 games46% · 297 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
57% · 128 games54% · 131 game
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
52% · 135 games50% · 88 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
46% · 156 games46% · 80 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 2prediction correct32:29
Team Liquid 60%Aurora Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
53% · 106 games49% · 271 game
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
51% · 312 games54% · 223 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
45% · 129 games49% · 184 games
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
49% · 301 game45% · 46 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
55% · 15 games51% · 139 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct33:13
Team Liquid 60%Aurora Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNisha
54% · 96 games46% · 129 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Tiny
TinymiCKe
56% · 391 game49% · 350 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
53% · 196 games43% · 260 games
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
Beastmaster
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
54% · 25 games48% · 9 games
Ancient ApparitionMira
Ancient Apparition
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
49% · 200 games48% · 160 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3