DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 45 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 28 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 27 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 23 games
Aurora Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 46 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
Marssignature
Ws · 43 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 34 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 32 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
613 picks · 963 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 442 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 506 bans
Warlock
443 picks · 291 bans
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 1061 bans
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 604 bans
Mars
408 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 74%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Team Liquid 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Shadow FiendNightfall
Queen of PainNisha
Storm SpiritLorenof
UnderlordAce
TidehunterWs
Shadow DemontOfu
WarlockKaori
Earth SpiritBoxi
LionMira
Game 2prediction missed15:30
Team Liquid 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritNisha
BeastmasterLorenof
Monkey KingmiCKe
AbaddonNightfall
BatriderAce
Centaur WarrunnerWs
DazzletOfu
WarlockKaori
ClockwerkBoxi
LionMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2