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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 35 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 30 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%

AVULUS

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 35 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 34 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 30 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
573 picks · 800 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
437 picks · 285 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 827 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
408 picks · 632 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 857 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
377 picks · 319 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
376 picks · 981 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 500 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
Team Liquid 67%AVULUS 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
57% · 454 games52% · 185 games
LifestealerSmiling Knight
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
53% · 130 games51% · 373 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
48% · 246 games49% · 422 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
51% · 337 games42% · 172 games
WindrangerdEsire
Windranger
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
52% · 82 games45% · 97 games
SilencerSoNNeikO
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct28:23
Team Liquid 65%AVULUS 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
55% · 288 games49% · 187 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Kunkka
Kunkkabryle-
51% · 129 games48% · 318 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
47% · 95 games48% · 47 games
TinkerSoNNeikO
Tinker
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
43% · 76 games54% · 162 games
MarsXibbe
Mars
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
51% · 254 games53% · 128 games
WindrangerdEsire
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2