?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Azure Rayloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 18 games
61%

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 11 games
82%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Chalice · 9 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
fy · 8 games
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 392 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
186 picks · 258 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
171 picks · 250 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
170 picks · 353 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
168 picks · 308 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
162 picks · 98 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Team Liquid 39%Azure Ray 61%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
46% · 189 games41% · 33 games
Lunalou
Luna
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
50% · 179 games51% · 190 games
Primal BeastSomnus
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
50% · 36 games56% · 174 games
Nature's Prophetfy
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
45% · 87 games51% · 249 games
PangolierChalice
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskBoxi
46% · 399 games59% · 244 games
Batrider天命
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed33:13
Team Liquid 41%Azure Ray 59%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightmiCKe
54% · 46 games36% · 11 games
BristlebackChalice
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
41% · 31 game56% · 78 games
Slarklou
Slark
Brewmaster
Brewmasterzai
43% · 45 games46% · 54 games
Queen of PainSomnus
Queen of Pain
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
52% · 135 games45% · 85 games
Spirit Breakerfy
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
53% · 108 games55% · 137 games
Batrider天命
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2