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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 28 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 13 games
77%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 12 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 11 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nightfall · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
633 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
572 picks · 923 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
566 picks · 418 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 406 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Team Liquid 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNisha
51% · 69 games44% · 134 games
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
53% · 54 games59% · 28 games
NecrophosgpK~
Necrophos
Slark
SlarkmiCKe
55% · 96 games58% · 30 games
VenomancerResolut1on
Venomancer
Doom
DoomBoxi
44% · 129 games46% · 60 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageiNSaNiA
49% · 82 games51% · 178 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Game 2prediction missed15:49
Team Liquid 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistmiCKe
49% · 88 games47% · 133 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Magnus
MagnusNisha
56% · 70 games45% · 261 game
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Venomancer
Venomancerzai
54% · 58 games50% · 304 games
Death ProphetResolut1on
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickBoxi
48% · 609 games42% · 156 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Chen
CheniNSaNiA
57% · 131 game53% · 102 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2