FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 26 games
Invokersignature
Nisha · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Muertasignature
Save- · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 27 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
Batridersignature
Save- · 25 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 691 bans
Phoenix
432 picks · 697 bans
Clockwerk
417 picks · 405 bans
Muerta
415 picks · 317 bans
Magnus
372 picks · 970 bans
Bristleback
371 picks · 861 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 502 bans
Batrider
362 picks · 422 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Team Liquid 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavermiCKe
PuckgpK~
RikiNisha
DawnbreakerPure~
EnigmaSabeRLight-
AbaddonMieRo
JakiroiNSaNiA
BatriderSave-
TuskBoxi
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Game 2prediction missed37:35
Team Liquid 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNisha
Monkey KingPure~
TinymiCKe
Dragon KnightgpK~
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
BristlebackMieRo
WindrangerBoxi
Crystal MaidenKataomi
SilenceriNSaNiA
WeaverSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2