?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 21 game
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
48%

BETBOOM TEAM

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 26 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 24 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 23 games
61%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 627 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
450 picks · 400 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
422 picks · 465 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 850 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
385 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 358 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 533 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 9
Model total55% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:24
Team Liquid 46%BETBOOM TEAM 54%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
50% · 322 games52% · 201 game
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
43% · 143 games56% · 255 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
47% · 183 games50% · 118 games
Nature's ProphetKataomi
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
49% · 83 games51% · 172 games
MagnusMieRo
Magnus
Marci
MarciBoxi
44% · 142 games58% · 127 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct32:36
Team Liquid 46%BETBOOM TEAM 54%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainmiCKe
47% · 78 games53% · 198 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
44% · 123 games53% · 67 games
LeshracPure~
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
45% · 151 game60% · 44 games
OmniknightMieRo
Omniknight
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
39% · 165 games59% · 126 games
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
54% · 105 games50% · 187 games
LionSave-
Lion
Game 3prediction missed38:18
Team Liquid 45%BETBOOM TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
47% · 124 games57% · 108 games
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
50% · 229 games53% · 263 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
56% · 270 games51% · 380 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
44% · 145 games47% · 221 game
Nature's ProphetKataomi
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskBoxi
44% · 399 games52% · 195 games
LionSave-
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3