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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
45%

BETBOOM TEAM

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 30 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 28 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 25 games
64%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 618 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
443 picks · 394 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
427 picks · 471 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 852 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 361 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 564 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 540 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 9
Model total62% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:33
Team Liquid 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
43% · 122 games53% · 197 games
Nature's ProphetPure~
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
52% · 237 games49% · 363 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
50% · 38 games51% · 149 games
Queen of PainMieRo
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderAri
47% · 276 games52% · 217 games
Shadow ShamanSave-
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskBoxi
50% · 296 games51% · 43 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Game 2prediction correct10:37
Team Liquid 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
49% · 136 games52% · 115 games
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
49% · 360 games51% · 247 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
47% · 133 games54% · 344 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
56% · 181 game46% · 173 games
MarciSave-
Marci
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 264 games48% · 195 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 62%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2