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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 28 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 15 games
60%

BETBOOM TEAM

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 46 games
61%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 21 game
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
583 picks · 927 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 417 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 661 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 926 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 639 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 523 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 8
Model total58% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:29
Team Liquid 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
51% · 247 games42% · 283 games
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
53% · 389 games54% · 86 games
HuskargpK~
Huskar
Underlord
UnderlordAce
49% · 191 game46% · 264 games
MarsMieRo
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
64% · 75 games51% · 142 games
PhoenixSave-
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
52% · 350 games41% · 477 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed23:4
Team Liquid 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 18:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
53% · 280 games52% · 284 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
48% · 134 games50% · 161 game
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyNisha
45% · 444 games53% · 193 games
TimbersawgpK~
Timbersaw
Mirana
MiranatOfu
56% · 61 game50% · 101 game
TinkerKataomi
Tinker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
48% · 301 game48% · 481 game
JakiroSave-
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed54:12
Team Liquid 45%BETBOOM TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
46% · 120 games57% · 175 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarNisha
46% · 140 games56% · 102 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
50% · 96 games52% · 112 games
MorphlinggpK~
Morphling
Muerta
MuertatOfu
45% · 137 games50% · 169 games
PhoenixSave-
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
46% · 111 games51% · 46 games
Spirit BreakerKataomi
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3